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Cytat
Do celu tam się wysiada. Lec Stanisław Jerzy (pierw. de Tusch-Letz, 1909-1966)
A bogowie grają w kości i nie pytają wcale czy chcesz przyłączyć się do gry (. . . ) Bogowie kpią sobie z twojego poukładanego życia (. . . ) nie przejmują się zbytnio ani naszymi planami na przyszłość ani oczekiwaniami. Gdzieś we wszechświecie rzucają kości i przypadkiem wypada twoja kolej. I odtąd zwyciężyć lub przegrać - to tylko kwestia szczęścia. Borys Pasternak
Idąc po kurzych jajach nie podskakuj. Przysłowie szkockie
I Herkules nie poradzi przeciwko wielu.
Dialog półinteligentów równa się monologowi ćwierćinteligenta. Stanisław Jerzy Lec (pierw. de Tusch - Letz, 1909-1966)
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.106 Moving Los Angeles: Short-Term Policy Options for Improving TransportationKey Observations on Congestion in Los AngelesCongestion is a challenge faced by all major cities, and the specificcharacteristics of urban form in Los Angeles exacerbate the difficulties.To inform the development of a suitable policy response to increasingcongestion in the region, it is helpful to synthesize some of the keyobservations and findings presented earlier in this book.Absent aggressive intervention, congestion will likely worsen.Congestion results from an imbalance in the supply of and demandfor road space.For several reasons including diminished fiscal capac-ity and resistance among affected communities significant expansionof the existing road network is unlikely.Notwithstanding the currenteconomic downturn and run-up in fuel prices, meanwhile, forecastedgrowth in population, the economy, and goods movement (see Fig-ures 2.2 and 2.4 in Chapter Two), suggest that automobile and trucktravel will continue to expand over the longer term.Given the nonlinearrelationship between traffic volume and travel speed (see Figure 2.7 inChapter Two), even small increases in peak-hour driving could makecongestion in Los Angeles much worse.Actively managing the demand for peak-hour automotive traveloffers the greatest potential for reducing congestion in Los Angeles.Los Angeles already has a very dense road network (see Figure 4.1 inChapter Four) that is operated at a high level of efficiency (Schrankand Lomax, 2007; see also the Current Implementation in Los Ange-les column in Figure 5.1 in Chapter Five).Significant opportunitiesto expand or enhance the efficiency of the road network are there-fore unlikely.On the other hand, residents of Los Angeles drive a lotrelative to the region s population density (see Figure 4.3 in ChapterFour).Finding ways to manage the demand for driving during peakhours thus appears to be the most promising indeed, perhaps theonly realistic way to reduce congestion.Only pricing strategies remain effective in managing automo-tive travel demand over the longer term.While several of the avail-able TDM and transit strategies may help to reduce peak-hour automo-tive travel in the short term, only pricing strategies are resistant to theeffects of triple convergence (Downs, 2004) in which travelers convergeon newly freed capacity from other modes, other routes, and other timesShort-Term Congestion-Reduction Recommendations 107of day.The application of prices, which helps to alleviate congestion inthe first place, also acts as a deterrent to triple convergence.Anotherway of describing this concept is that pricing is the only approach thatcan reduce congestion without inducing additional travel demand.Pro-vided that prices are allowed to rise, as needed, in response to generalincreases in the demand for automotive travel in future years that is,that prices remain a function of demand rather being set by adminis-trative decree then pricing strategies will continue to be effective inreducing congestion over the longer term as well.Given the fact that automotive-travel demand in Los Angeles islikely to expand with continued growth in population, the economy,and trade, the longer-term effectiveness of pricing represents an espe-cially compelling benefit.Pricing will also generate revenue that can beused to fund complementary strategies.Pricing strategies require alternative transportation improve-ments.Because pricing strategies increase the financial cost of travelingduring peak hours, at least some drivers will likely shift to public tran-sit or other modes.1 Absent high-quality transit alternatives optionsthat are fast, convenient, safe, and efficient pricing will create equityconcerns, especially among lower-income drivers.While Los Angeleshas, in recent decades, invested in subways, light rail, and BRT, ourresearch suggests that the region relative to its density and in com-parison with other major metropolitan areas in the country is notyet a leader in the provision of faster transit options with dedicatedright-of-way (see Figure 4.4 in Chapter Four).Strategic expansions tothe existing rail network may, in some cases, be merited over the longerterm; in the near term, many BRT features can be applied to improvethe speed and convenience of bus service in the region at lower costand with faster implementation.The density of Los Angeles also argues for improved alterna-tives.Using prices to reduce peak-hour congestion is not the only argu-ment for improving transit and other alternative modes in the region.Los Angeles is very dense at the regional level (see Table 4.3 in Chapter1Other drivers may choose to pay the congestion toll, drive at different times or by differ-ent routes to avoid or reduce the toll, or forgo their trip entirely.108 Moving Los Angeles: Short-Term Policy Options for Improving TransportationFour), and density makes it more difficult to preserve unfettered auto-mobility.On the other hand, greater density makes alternative modesmore feasible and cost-effective
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